The 2020 U.S. presidential election begins. On June 18, President Trump will formally announce his candidacy in Florida. A week later, the first democratic debate will begin. What does the upcoming US election mean for Chinese relations? If the Democrats defeat the Republicans, is there any chance of a sharp turn in China and America’s relations? Can the pendulum effect save the fraying relationship between China and the United States?In early 2017, less than a month after entering the White House, President Trump expressed his intention to win a second term, becoming the first President in the history of the United States to announce his decision to serve a second term. Now, for all his domestic and foreign frustrations, President Trump is determined to win: “if I don’t get re-elected, the stock market will crash like never before!”And there seems to be a silver lining to the Democrats’ turnaround. State polls do not look good for Republicans at the moment. In the Rust Belt, where Mr. Trump has relied most heavily on, more voters supported several democratic candidates; In one recent poll, President Trump trailed even five Democrat candidates. The problem for Democrats, however, is that there are too many candidates. There is a dizzying array of more than 20 candidates, but the front-runner is Joe Biden. The final lineup is likely to be President Trump, 73, versus Biden, 76. Despite Biden’s double-digit poll lead over President Trump, it’s too early. Remember this time four years ago? Mrs. Clinton was riding high in the polls, and no one really CARED about the “pompous” Mr. Trump.An American academic has written that the predictive power of polls conducted 300 days before presidential election day is almost negligible. If the Democrats defeat the Republicans, will there be a sharp turn in current US policy towards China? Will the pendulum effect return? We don’t know anything until after we know the results.